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Select your languageSuggested languages for you: Demographic Transition Model In geography, we love a good visual image, graph, model, or whatever is nice to look at when presenting data! The demographic transition model does just that; a visual aid to help describe the differences in population rates across the world. Dive on in to learn more about what the demographic transition model is, the different stages, and the strengths and weaknesses that this model brings to the table. For revision, this one will be needed to be stuck on your bathroom mirror, so you don't forget it! Demographic transition model definitionThe demographic transition model (DTM) is a really important diagram in geography. It was coined by Warren Thompson, in 1929. It demonstrates how the population (demographic) of countries fluctuate over time (transition), as birth rates, death rates, and natural increase change. Population levels are actually one of the critical Measures of Development and can indicate whether a country has a higher or lower level of development but we'll talk about this more later on. Firstly, let's have a look at what the model looks like.
We can see that the DTM is split into 5 stages. It has four measurements; birth rate, death rate, natural increase and total population. What exactly does this mean? Birth rates are the number of people that are born in a country (per 1000, per year). Death rates are the number of people that have died in a country (per 100, per year). The birth rate minus the death rate calculates whether there is a natural increase, or a natural decrease. If birth rates are really high, and death rates are really low, the population will naturally increase. If death rates are higher than birth rates, the population will naturally decrease. This consequently affects the total population.The number of birth rates, death rates, and therefore natural increase, determine which stage of the DTM a country is in. Let's take a look at these stages. This image shows Population Pyramids too, but we won't talk about that here. Make sure you read our Population Pyramids explanation for information on this! Stages of the demographic transition model (DTM)As we have discussed, the DTM shows how birth rates, death rates, and natural increase influence the total population in a country. However, the DTM includes 5 very important stages that countries progress through, as these population figures change. Simply, as the country in question goes through the different stages, the total population will rise, as birth rates and death rates change. Take a look at the more simple image of the DTM below (this one is easier to remember than the more complicated one above!).
The different stages of the DTM can indicate the levels of development within a country. Make sure you read our measure of development explanation to understand this a little better. As a country progresses through the DTM, the more developed they become. We'll discuss the reasons for this in each stage Stage 1: high stationaryIn stage 1, the total population is relatively low, but birth rates and death rates are both very high. Natural increase doesn't occur, as the birth rates and death rates are somewhat balanced. Stage 1 is symbolic of less developed countries, that haven't gone through the processes of industrialisation, and have a much more agricultural-based society. Birth rates are higher due to limited access to fertility education and contraception, and in some cases, religious differences. Death rates are very high due to poor access to health care, inadequate sanitation, and higher prominence of diseases or issues like food insecurity and water insecurity. Stage 2: early expandingStage 2 involves a population boom! This results from a country beginning to show signs of development. Birth rates are still high, but death rates go down. This results in a higher natural increase, and therefore total population rises dramatically. Death rates go down due to improvements in things like healthcare, food production, and water quality. Stage 3: late expandingIn stage 3, the population is still increasing. However, birth rates begin to reduce, and with lower death rates too, the pace of natural increase starts to slow. The decline in birth rates can be because of improved access to contraception, and changes in the desire to have children, as changes in gender equality influence whether women may or may not stay at home. Having bigger families isn't so necessary anymore, as industrialisation occurs, fewer children are needed to work in the agricultural sector. Fewer children are also dying; therefore, births are reduced. Stage 4: low stationaryIn the more historical model of the DTM, stage 4 was actually the final stage. Stage 4 still shows a relatively high population, with a low birth rate and a low death rate. This means that the total population doesn't really rise, it stays pretty stagnate. However, in some cases, the population may begin to decline, as a result of fewer births (because of things like a reduced desire for children). This means there is no replacement rate, as fewer people are being born. This decline can actually result in an ageing population. Stage 4 is usually associated with much higher levels of development. The replacement rate is the number of births that needs to take place to keep a population stable, i.e., the population essentially replaces itself. An ageing population is a rise in the elderly population. It's directly caused by fewer births and an increased life expectancy. Life expectancy is the amount of time someone is expected to live. Longer life expectancies stem from better healthcare and better access to food and water resources. Stage 5: decline or incline?Stage 5 can also represent decline, where the total population isn't replacing itself. However, this is contested; look at both of the DTM images above, which show uncertainty about whether the population is going to rise again or fall even further. The death rate remains low and stable, but fertility rates could go either way in the future. It could even depend on the country that we are talking about. Migration could also influence the population of a country. Demographic transition model exampleExamples and case studies are just as important as models and graphs for us geographers! Let's have a look at some examples of countries that are in each of the stages of the DTM.
The UK went through each of these stages too.
What will come next for the UK in stage 5? Will it follow the trends of Germany and Japan, and go into population decline, or will it follow other predictions, and see a population rise? Demographic transition model strengths and weaknessesLike most theories, concepts, or models, there are both strengths and weaknesses to the DTM. Let's take a look at both of these.
Demographic transition model - Key takeaways
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Frequently Asked Questions about Demographic Transition ModelThe demographic transition model is a diagram that shows how the population of a country changes over time; it displays birth rates, death rates, natural increase, and total population levels. It can also symbolise the level of development within a country. A good example of the demographic transition model is Japan, which has followed the DTM perfectly. The 5 stages of the demographic transition model are: low stationary, early expanding, late expanding, low stationary, and decline/incline. The demographic transition model shows levels of birth rates and death rates, which can help to show how developed a country is. The model shows birth rates, death rates, and natural increase, which helps to show how the total population grows and declines. Final Demographic Transition Model Quiz
Question The Demographic Transition Model was created by _____ in ___. Show answer
Question What does the Demographic Transition Model show? Show answer Answer Birth rates, death rates, natural increase, and total population. Show question
Question The difference between birth rates and death rates is known as ____. Show answer
Question When birth rates are high, and death rates are low, what happens to the total population? Show answer
Question True or false: As countries move through each of the stages, development levels worsen. Show answer
Question What are the 5 stages of the Demographic Transition Model? Show answer Answer
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Question True or false: when there are enough births to keep a stable population, this is known as the replacement rate. Show answer
Question What is an ageing population? Show answer Answer Rise in the population who are elderly. Show question
Question What is an example of a country at stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model? Show answer
Question What is an example of a country at stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model? Show answer
Question When did the UK hit stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model? Show answer Answer Beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Show question
Question What stage of the Demographic Transition Model is the UK in now? Show answer
Question What countries follow the model exactly? Show answer
Question True or false: the dtm is mainly based on western countries. Show answer
Question What factors are ignored by the Demographic Transition Model? Show answer Answer
Show question Discover the right content for your subjectsNo need to cheat if you have everything you need to succeed! Packed into one app!Study PlanBe perfectly prepared on time with an individual plan. QuizzesTest your knowledge with gamified quizzes. FlashcardsCreate and find flashcards in record time. NotesCreate beautiful notes faster than ever before. Study SetsHave all your study materials in one place. DocumentsUpload unlimited documents and save them online. Study AnalyticsIdentify your study strength and weaknesses. Weekly GoalsSet individual study goals and earn points reaching them. Smart RemindersStop procrastinating with our study reminders. RewardsEarn points, unlock badges and level up while studying. Magic MarkerCreate flashcards in notes completely automatically. Smart FormattingCreate the most beautiful study materials using our templates. Sign up to highlight and take notes. It’s 100% free. Why does the death rate fluctuate in Stage 1?Answer. C. The death rate fluctuates as there is little medication or access to a steady food supply. The death rate declines rapidly as people gain access to medical vaccines, e.g. MMR, family planning methods improve and food supply increases.
What happens in Stage 1 of the demographic transition model?Stage 1 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is characterized by a low population growth rate due to a high birth rate (number of annual births per one thousand people) and a high death rate (number of annual deaths per one thousand people).
In which stage of demographic transition the death rate was highest?Complete answer: Demographic transition happens through four main stages. In the first stage, both the birth and death rates are high.
At what stage of the demographic transition model does death rate start to decline?Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is characterized by a rapid decrease in a country's death rate while the birth rate remains high. As such, the total population of a country in Stage 2 will rise because births outnumber deaths, not because the birth rate is rising.
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